Did Trump manufacture a shock to US-Iran relations to jump-start negotiations? Insights from rivalry research

This post has been removed from my personal website because an edited, improved version has been published with Political Violence @ a Glance under the title, “Shock and Thaw? The Limited Prospects for US-Iran De-Escalation.” In the piece I use the scholarly literature on international rivalries as a lens. The lethal, targeted strike against Iranian general Qassem Soleimani is viewed as a possible shock to US-Iran relations that, in theory, could trigger deescalation of the rivalry. But the piece also explains, using additional insights from the literature, why this outcome is unlikely.

Related: Please see also my op-ed in The Tennessean, “Targeted killing of Iranian general Qassim Suleimani creates high risks for U.S.”